Bitcoin was a bubble

The definitive history of Bitcoin

In the USA, a real guild of Bitcoin disciples has developed, which is reason enough for economic historians such as those of the magazine "Fortune" to critically examine the growth spurts of the digital currency, but also its dropouts and interruptions. Result: The twelve-year-old will soon be back to the point from which he is trimmed. Then the rally is over. As always with investment decisions, the financiers are wondering about the exact time at which the rally will be canceled. In order not to be wrong, the Fortune authors recommend a look at the history.

To do this, they divided the development of Bitcoin into five periods - all stretches in which the price shot up massively in quick succession, only to then swish down again with even greater drama - mostly to a level that was lower than that of from which he set out on his record hunt. And they make up the reasons for this rapid roller coaster ride, which are crucial in order to be able to predict the next bubble and its bursting in the end.

Their basic tone is optimistic: "Financial bubbles can arise from over-optimism about the effectiveness of innovations," they write. In the long run, however, the innovations still paid off. As an example, the author of the Bitcoin history, David Morris, cites the dot-com bubble of 1999. It burst a year later, but a decade later the sustained rise of dot-com companies began.

The problems faced by scientists when examining the Bitcoin history already begin with the determination of the respective Bitcoin value in the past few years. Many of the Bitcoin marketplaces that used to set historical prices no longer exist. Until 2014, Mt. Gox was one of the world's largest trading centers for bitcoins. It was founded in 2009 as an exchange place for trading cards, in 2010 it was rededicated as a Bitcoin exchange and in August 2013, 60 percent of the global Bitcoin trading volume was brokered via the platform, before the operator a year later on February 28, 2014 at a Japanese district court Filed for bankruptcy.

They gambled away. Until 2012, the authors of the first relevant historical account will therefore rely on the exchange, for prices thereafter on CoinGecko, an online platform that tracks the value of cryptocurrencies in real time.